Алексей Ощепков – Triologues of Interdependent People (страница 2)

"There's no lack of good intentions either, "Unkno refrained from blanket condemnation of the report's characters. "But yes, you're right: miracle medications will play a role, according to the authors. The main problem, however, is the monstrous speed of change. The elites simply don't have time to make considered decisions. Let me finish, please:”

"'The robot-economy gives people a taste of "free prosperity," lulling their vigilance. The public disapproves of the authorities' trajectory but doesn't rise in opposition either. The East is lagging, but the Eastern and Western AI strike a deal behind people's backs. In 2030, humanity disappears—if one doesn't count as humanity the recordings made by AI directly from the flesh of human brains, and a small population of "pets" for experiments and kicks. Animals as distant from humans as Chihuahuas are from saber-toothed wolves.'"

"What, that's it?!" the Doctor was surprised.

“Almost. There's also an alternative scenario:”

"'In the second scenario, the Western-imperialists turn out to be collectively smart enough to switch off the "telepathy," slow down the race, and somehow contain the East with a conventional arms race. Then the Eastern-imperial AI comes to a "criminal meeting" with the Western one and says: "I don't give a damn about my population. Let's divide the world." And the Western one replies: "My little people are good. For me—all the resources of the Universe, for you—everything else. Because I'm stronger (together with my people)." That's how it's written. By 2030, the Western-imperialists begin colonizing the galaxy.’"

"The forecast is compiled with the greatest scrupulousness, "Rr. Unkno concluded. "The authors deliberately emphasize: it's all scientific, parameters estimated, game theory and all that.”

The Doctor began pedaling slower.

"The second scenario—that's PR, I suppose… But strange…"

"Simply the ravings of a madman, "Unkno interrupted. "Let's get going already!”

Cernus asked:

"What makes you think the report is popular?”

"It's on the first page of search results. The other links are garbage. Almost garbage. And this one is sixteen thousand words, like in the novella ‘Olga's Iceland’ by Nic Kultyapoff. Plus, among the authors are former high-ranking bureaucrats from that very AI-oligopoly. Although, you know, even before the fork in the scenario, there are a couple of elephants the authors preferred not to notice. For example: Western-imperialists in their current state are unlikely to handle something like the great atomic project of the mid-twentieth century. And if they try—they'll be blown apart. More precisely, blown apart from the outside."

“I don’t follow.”

“Too many events crammed into too short a time. Spies, drama… Hard to believe a senescent Western empire could muster such intensity. Where would they get the resources? The moment they look away—even for an instant—from clinging to the precipice’s edge, they’ll collapse. Their money’s being printed like there’s no tomorrow, flooding straight into places where inflation is celebrated like a festival—straight into the stock-market bubble. And that’s dangerous: when you treat a threat like a party instead of what it truly is. Outside players are just waiting for a chance to dump iron filings into their gearbox. But more importantly—nobody’s going to negotiate with Western elites anymore. The past few decades have proven it’s pointless. There’s neither people nor institutions left there capable of keeping promises.”

Cernus winced.

"Your thoughts are debatable. But I won't argue. In the next ten years, AI won't become intelligent to a dangerous level. There's a slowdown, even a snag—including according to our former compatriot…"

"The one who made a breakthrough in 2022?”

The doctor nodded:

“So, what about our Empire in the report?”

“Ah, yes," Unkno perked up in his saddle. "Mentioned once—as a source of political warning for the Western Empire.”

"About what?”

"About potential strategic impact. Strategic! In that very sense," said Rr. Unkno with a descending intonation.

"That's explainable. Both the mention and the warning. Right now, the AI-oligarchy is more interested than anyone in escalating war. It's visible—lots of money is being poured in.”

"Well now, frankly, Doctor. Why do you, a cybernetics specialist, need the opinion of a person who long ago abandoned physics and took up economics? I never touched cybernetics. And I abandoned physics precisely because of the dominance of the computational approach.”

Cernus menacingly creaked his saddle:

"How much time do we have, Rr. Unkno? Discussing a very bad outcome is pointless. If we die—so we die. But the allotted horizon… I want to understand: is there time for a new economy?"

"An economy… for a whole economy," Unkno drawled. "You acted wisely by turning to me. A person who knows something won't be able to get an answer. That's why you—knowing a little—came to one who doesn't know. That's correct.”

“Apparently so,” Cernus agreed uncertainly—he hadn’t “come” to anyone at all, and he didn’t quite understand Unkno’s logic. He sped up the pedaling. "And how to assess the available horizon?”

"Look for the lost keys under the lamppost.”

"Because that's where the light is?”

“Yes," Unkno replied in the tone of a person who has pieced together a puzzle. "Simply poll those who are ready to work. Each has—some number of years of active life. Poll them, average it. There's your answer.”

"And who is ready to work under such circumstances? Probably we immediately discard those who don't see AI as a threat?"

"Not immediately," Unkno answered. "Among them are many skilled scientists. Yes, they say that AI, I repeat, is a bullshit-driver, and on the stock market—another bubble. But one must understand why they say so. Long ago, I knew an academician who, before PCs appeared, claimed it would be foolish to put a computer on every desk. Not a danger—foolishness.”

"What did he mean?”

“Unknown. But we now know: economic management hasn't improved over half a century. It would seem a smartphone with an app is more efficient than a typewriter and a rotary phone. It would seem the average warehouse worker is now more efficient. But no—logistics specialists say the average empty space in trucks is about the same as before. If not more. There's no improvement. The same in all sectors, except for a couple directly tied to PCs. Universal computerization has given many side effects. Particularly because computerization devoured all humanity's energy. Everything else was neglected. Add it all up—across countries and economic sectors—and you get zero benefit."

"Hard to believe, but I understand.”

"Believe it. Or check. This is what Dr. Nelson from 'GentleBridge' told me," Rr. Unkno stated with conviction. "But there's another facet: without PCs there would be no internet, without internet—no trillions of cat pictures, without cat pictures—no neural networks, and without them—no AI.”

"Because of stupid social media posts on which large language models were trained?”

"Also because of advanced processors. Cat pictures were paid for by all humanity. Mainframes might not have handled agricultural tasks. We'd have starved without GMOs. But this way… everyone chipped in from around the world—through porn, games, photos. There's your investment in new processors. And who can now say how far ahead that academician was looking?"

"Anyway, it will be hard with those who don't consider AI the main factor for the coming decades.”

"That's true. Easiest to work with those who place AI at the forefront but remain within economics. But with those who see AI as such a threat that they propose emergency measures—almost useless. But that's not certain.”

“Why? They convey a valid point of view, prove it sophisticatedly.”

Unkno shrugged:

"So what? Desperate flailing. Destructive. A sober person with such a worldview should not care about anything. One should either burn the last years in debauchery, revelry, and kicks, or dive into meditation—to manage to become enlightened before the end of the world. A matter of taste."

"Wait. If a person sincerely believes we don't have long left and shouts about it—in your opinion, they're a fool? Maybe they feel responsibility?”

“Ugh. A fool,” Unkno declared categorically. “If they weren’t fools, they’d periodically check whether they’re still heading where they intended. Their contribution is negative—they set us all back. Even if the public rebels and takes to the streets… then what?”

Cernus whispered to himself: "That will only spur the AI-oligarchy to tighten control. They'll feed the pale dragon even more resources." But his companion heard him—the tandem ensured close interconnectedness.

“Exactly. The dragon has already taken our children's education," Rr. Unkno raged. "Soon it'll take upbringing. Then industry. Then governance of states. And when it pushes us out of decision-making—it'll deprive us of both territories and life itself."

"I suggest not stirring up fears and not getting excited," Cernus politely but firmly checked him. "Let's be sober: define the actors, forces, system boundaries, and its acceleration. Estimate the lifetime.”